October 21-22, 2013
Optimizing Forecasting and Planning to Improve R&D Productivity
Monday | Tuesday | Speaker Biographies
Monday, October 21, 2013
7:30 am Pre-Conference Short Course Registration
10:00 Main Conference Registration
11:05 Organizer's Welcome
Micah Lieberman, Executive Director, Conferences, BioPharmaceutical Strategy Series, Cambridge Healthtech Institute (CHI)
11:10 Chairperson's Opening Remarks
Eric Moss, Director, Portfolio & Decision Analysis, Strategy & Portfolio Management, Pfizer
11:15 A Consumer's Guide to Research about Resource Allocation and Portfolio Management
Jeffrey Keisler, Ph.D., Professor, College of Management, University of Massachusetts Boston
Scholarly research in decision analysis and other disciplines has a lot to offer resource allocation and portfolio management. This overview will address: why research can be valuable to companies, its key themes and where they come from, how you locate relevant high work, how to judge the quality of that work, cracking the code to understand what is new underneath the jargon, critical questions you should ask; how to incorporate insights into your company's practice, and how to be part of the dialogue.
11:45 Role of Uncertainty in Biopharmaceutical R&D Portfolio Decision Making
Daniel Zweidler, Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Mack Institute for Innovation Management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Biotech and Pharmaceutical executives are confronted with several significant sources of uncertainty when making R&D portfolio decisions. Key among these uncertainties is the level of clinical innovation and scientific feasibility of each program, the level of competitive intensity and the ever-changing regulatory environment. Making decisions and planning for such an uncertain future calls for a shift in information management—from predictions to multiple scenarios and single numbers to probability distributions. By measuring the plausible impacts of these uncertain forces and understanding their interdependencies, they can be modeled to explore the optimal tradeoff between strategic objectives.
12:15 pm Factors that Influence Portfolio Decisions
Anastasia Christianson, Ph.D., Senior Director, R&D Information, AstraZeneca
Portfolio decisions require the availability of quality scientific, medical, and business data; yet, we often only have a fraction of the necessary information. What is the minimum information needed to support good portfolio decisions? Is the same level of information available for compounds developed in-house compared to in-licensed compounds? Do in-licensed compounds have the same, better, or worse chance of success? Does an in-licensed compound influence decisions on the rest of the portfolio? This presentation will explore these and other factors that affect portfolio decision making.
12:45 Luncheon Presentation: Accounting for Risk in your Resource Management Processes
Dave Penndorf, Executive Consultant, Planisware USA
In the volatile world of pharmaceutical research and development, it is vital to account for risks and uncertainties inherent to each project, or study, in order to attain a realistic depiction of future resourcing needs. Without properly accounting for risk, organizations may find themselves unable to accurately anticipate staffing issues, and scrambling to address resource bottlenecks. In this presentation, Dave will introduce leading practices that can help your organization incorporate risk into both the short and long term resource forecasting horizons - enabling you to take actionable decisions that will ready your company for the future.
1:55 Chairperson's Remarks
Arkady Gusev, Ph.D., Head of US Operation, Biomarker Development, Translational Medicine, Novartis
2:00 Underforecasting: How and Why Product Sales are Underestimated
John Ansell, Senior Partner, TranScrip; Author: "Transforming Big Pharma – Assessing the Strategic Alternatives"
Forecasting methodologies still in use have, in the past, often tended to grossly underestimate eventual sales of successful products. There are numerous examples of recently peaking products that achieved sales of five times or more what they were originally forecasted to achieve. This presentation explains why commercial potential is much more often underestimated than overestimated. It also explains the dangers of underestimation: failure to adequately promote products that appear to be too small; post-launch, jumping too quickly to negative conclusions; cancelling or not taking up perfectly viable products that are potential blockbusters.
2:30 The Unintended Consequences of Co-Development of Pipeline Products
James Carlson, Senior Director, Program Management and Due Diligence, Shire Regenerative Medicine
Companies enter into partnerships for co-development of pipeline products for a number of reasons. Among these are availability of additional funding and additional resources, leveraging partner capabilities that a company doesn't possess, and risk mitigation. In exchange, companies agree to forfeit a portion of the potential revenue from their assets. Partnership, however, also can have unintended consequences that may not be recognized at their inception. It is incumbent on program and alliance managers to be aware of these potential issues and their implications in order to manage both stakeholders in their company and their partner. This presentation will discuss some of the unintended results that can arise from partnering product co-development and mitigation strategies.
3:00 Productivity Improvement through Integrated Business Planning (IBP)
Rafiqul Islam, Senior Director, Global Bioanalytical Services, Celerion, Inc.
While the amount of outsourced bioanalytical work continues to grow, bioanalytical CROs are faced with increasing global competition, highly variable demand, high fixed costs, pricing pressure, and increasing demand for quality and speed. Most bioanalytical labs have responded to this challenge by implementing technological solutions (e.g. automation, electronic lab notebooks) and by implementing process improvement methodologies (e.g. Lean, Six Sigma). These solutions have not resulted in a significant improvement in productivity and profitability due to the fact that none of these solutions are able to predict the upturn or downturn in demand (volume/mix). In this presentation the IBP will presented as a tool for balancing supply and demand and the system/ processes leveraged at Celerion will be discussed. The IBP process, when executed effectively, can be the single greatest determinant of profitability for any business.
3:30 Co-Presentation: Strategic Portfolio Optimization in Reality
David Higgins, Senior Consultant, Strategic Planning Solutions, ProModel Life Sciences
Kurtis E. Shampine, Vice President & General Manager, ProModel Life Sciences Solutions
Strategic portfolio planning and optimization is an extremely challenging endeavor for organizations to execute successfully. ProModel has developed a unique enterprise solution approach allowing organizations to collaborate using the same highly accurate, visual platform. The result is a far greater level of confidence in optimizing a plan to achieve the organization's strategic objectives. Working with your realistic constraints, the solution rapidly experiments with future portfolio possibilities narrowing them down, in order to recommend different options to maximize the portfolio's performance.
4:00 Networking Refreshment Break in the Exhibit Hall
4:30 Interactive Breakout Discussions
Concurrent breakout discussion groups are interactive, guided discussions hosted by a facilitator or set of co-facilitators to discuss some of the key issues presented earlier in the day's sessions. Delegates will join a table of interest and become an active part of the discussion at hand. To get the most out of this interactive session and format please come prepared to share examples from your work, vet some ideas with your peers, be a part of group interrogation and problem solving, and, most importantly, participate in active idea sharing.
Topics may include:
- Applying weights to quantitative and qualitative criteria for improved decision making
- Incorporating a globalized workforce and other resourcing options (off-shoring, in-sourcing, in-out licensing and risk-sharing) into capacity management
- Building partnerships between project management, resource management, functional management, and finance to drive productivity
- Resource management: centralized vs. decentralized
- Achieving more effective and real-time portfolio management and resource allocation
5:30 Networking Cocktail Reception in the Exhibit Hall
6:15 Close of Day
Monday | Tuesday | Speaker Biographies